Boeing Shares Rise After Smaller-Than-Expected Loss Despite Trade War Concerns

By Joseph, Contributor
April 25, 2025 – 12:00 PM CST, Milwaukee, WI

Boeing’s stock rose 4.2% on April 24, 2025, after the aerospace giant reported a smaller-than-expected first-quarter loss, buoying investor confidence despite ongoing concerns about U.S.-China trade tensions. The company, a bellwether for U.S. manufacturing, posted a per-share loss of $1.10, beating analyst forecasts of $1.45, driven by cost-cutting and stronger commercial airplane deliveries.

The results mark a rare bright spot for Boeing, which has faced a turbulent few years marked by the 737 MAX crashes, supply chain disruptions, and labor disputes. CEO Kelly Ortberg, who took the helm in 2024, credited “operational discipline” for the performance, noting a 15% increase in 737 MAX deliveries compared to the prior year. The company delivered 83 commercial planes in the quarter, up from 67 in 2024.

Investors welcomed the news, but trade war concerns tempered enthusiasm. President Trump’s proposed tariffs, including potential duties on Chinese imports critical to Boeing’s supply chain, pose risks to its cost structure. China, a major market for Boeing, accounted for 20% of its 737 MAX orders in 2024, making it vulnerable to retaliatory measures from Beijing.

Boeing’s supply chain relies heavily on Chinese titanium and components, and tariffs could drive up production costs. Trump’s recent signal of a softer stance on China tariffs, announced on April 24, provided some relief, but uncertainty persists. A post on X noted, “Boeing’s stock pops, but China trade risks loom large—can they dodge the tariff bullet?” The sentiment reflects the delicate balance Boeing must navigate.

The company’s defense and space division, which accounts for 30% of revenue, also showed improvement, with a 5% sales increase driven by demand for military aircraft. However, rising geopolitical tensions, including the Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts, have disrupted supply chains for critical materials, adding pressure on margins.

Boeing’s recovery efforts have been bolstered by cost-cutting measures, including a 10% workforce reduction announced in 2024. The move, which saved $2 billion annually, has drawn criticism from unions but improved cash flow. Ortberg emphasized that the company is “rightsizing” to compete with rival Airbus, which has gained market share in recent years.

Regulatory scrutiny remains a challenge. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has increased oversight of Boeing’s production processes following safety concerns with the 737 MAX. A recent incident involving a MAX door plug failure prompted a $500 million fine, though Boeing has since implemented stricter quality controls, which Ortberg claims are yielding results.

The commercial aviation market is rebounding, with global air travel demand projected to grow 4.5% in 2025. Boeing’s order backlog, valued at $520 billion, provides a buffer, but delays in certifying new models like the 777X, now pushed to 2026, have frustrated customers. Carriers like Emirates and Qatar Airways have signaled openness to Airbus if delays persist.

China’s role in Boeing’s future cannot be overstated. The country’s aviation market is expected to account for 20% of global aircraft demand by 2040. However, Trump’s trade policies, even if softened, could prompt China to favor Airbus or its domestic manufacturer, COMAC, whose C919 jet is gaining traction. Boeing’s loss of a 2023 China Southern order to Airbus underscored this risk.

Labor issues continue to loom. A 2024 strike by 33,000 machinists halted production for six weeks, costing Boeing $6 billion. While a new contract with higher wages was ratified, tensions remain, with unions warning of further action if cost-cutting threatens jobs. Ortberg has pledged to improve labor relations, but the path forward is uncertain.

Boeing’s financial health is improving but fragile. The company reduced its debt by $3 billion in 2024, but still carries $45 billion in long-term debt from the MAX crisis and pandemic losses. Cash flow, positive for the first time since 2021, offers breathing room, but analysts warn that trade disruptions could derail progress.

Geopolitical risks extend beyond China. The Ukraine war has disrupted titanium supplies from Russia, forcing Boeing to seek alternative sources. The Middle East, a key market for Boeing’s defense products, remains volatile, with potential escalations threatening contracts with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Boeing’s stock performance also reflects broader market dynamics. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, of which Boeing is a component, rose 1.2% on April 24, buoyed by optimism over Trump’s tariff pause. However, analysts caution that Boeing’s gains are tied to execution, not just market sentiment, given its operational challenges.

Sustainability pressures are another concern. Airlines are demanding fuel-efficient planes to meet net-zero goals, but Boeing’s delayed 737 MAX 10 and 777X models lag behind Airbus’s A321neo in efficiency. Boeing has pledged $1 billion for sustainable aviation fuel research, but progress is slow, risking competitive disadvantage.

The company’s long-term outlook hinges on stabilizing its supply chain and navigating trade risks. Trump’s 90-day tariff pause, announced for other partners, could provide a framework for China negotiations, but Boeing must diversify suppliers to reduce reliance on volatile markets. Investments in automation and digital manufacturing are underway but require time.

Analysts see Boeing’s results as a step forward but not a turning point. The company’s ability to deliver on its backlog, restore customer trust, and mitigate trade risks will determine its trajectory. Airbus’s 55% market share in narrowbody jets underscores the competitive pressure Boeing faces.

Ultimately, Boeing’s stock rise reflects cautious optimism amid a complex landscape. While the smaller-than-expected loss signals progress, trade war concerns and operational challenges loom large. As Ortberg steers the company through these headwinds, Boeing’s resilience will be tested in an industry where margins are thin and stakes are high.