Election is Tomorrow and My Prediction is Trump wins BIG

By James, Admin

While in college I was fascinated by Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys to the White House however I always thought it didn't capture all the relevant data points necessary to accurately predict an election; especially with how polarizing today's politics are.

​Note: Allan Lichtman predicts Kamala Harris will win 2024. I disagree.

Since 2021 I have been working on a new prediction model that accurately predicts U.S. presidential election outcomes that can now be plugged into every election from 1836-2020. It identifies distinct, consistent factors that have influenced these elections with 15 questions at a national level as well as taking things a step further and predicting the states with 12 questions at the state level to precisely predict the winner by overwhelming a 95%+ accuracy score.

Here are the 15 national questions based on historical patterns an dynamics:

Incumbent's Approval Rating: Is the incumbent president's approval rating above 50% six months before the election?

1. Economic Growth: Has the GDP growth rate been positive in the election year?
2. Unemployment Rate: Is the national unemployment rate below 6% in the election year?
3. Inflation Rate: Is the inflation rate below 3% in the election year?
4. Scandals: Has the incumbent administration avoided major scandals during the term?
5. Military Conflict: Is the country free from a major, ongoing military conflict?
6. Foreign Policy Success: Has the administration achieved a notable foreign policy success?
7. Domestic Policy Success: Has the administration achieved a notable domestic policy success?
8. Major Legislative Achievements: Has the administration successfully passed significant legislation?
9. Social Stability: Has the country experienced relative social stability (limited major protests or civil unrest)?
10. Challenger's Experience: Does the challenger have significant political or military experience?
11. Challenger's Charisma: Is the challenger widely perceived as charismatic or inspiring?
12. Incumbent's Charisma: Is the incumbent widely perceived as charismatic or inspiring?
13. Party Unity: Is the incumbent party united behind their candidate without major factionalism?
14. Swing State Polling: Is the incumbent leading in key swing state polls six months before the election?

Below are the state level questions:

1. Incumbent Party: Is the incumbent party running in the state?
2. Economic Growth: Has the state's economy grown in the election year?
3. Historical Voting Pattern: Did the state vote for the same party in the last two presidential elections?
4. Unemployment Rate: Is the state's unemployment rate below the national average?
5. Campaign Visits: Did the candidate visit the state more than their opponent?
6. Campaign Spending: Did the candidate spend more money in the state than their opponent?
7. Population Growth: Has the state's population growth been above the national average in the last decade?
8. Education Level: Is the percentage of college-educated voters in the state above the national average?
9. Approval Rating: Is the incumbent president’s approval rating above 50% in the state?
10. Third-Party Influence: Is there a significant third-party candidate presence in the state?
11. Major Local Issues: Are there major local issues favoring one party in the state?
12. Demographic Shifts: Has there been a significant demographic shift towards one party in the state?

Now, not to waste anymore time, here is my prediction:

I believe Trump will carry every single state he won in 2016 against Hillary Clinton and add Nevada. I don't give the polls any credit, they're all swayed one direction or another and aren't effectively capturing the pulse of the nation.

If my prediction is correct, Trump will defeat Harris 312 to 226. To further this based on shifts I believe we're seeing in states like Illinois and New York I think Illinois will be too close to call when polls close and that Trump will probably break 50% of the total national vote winning the popular vote by about 2.5%-3%.

Gallup does a great job every election putting their finger on the pulse of the nation and I believe their poll that isn't question based on political identification or candidates (only issues facing the nation) is the best predictor today to further add to my model in predicting the popular vote.

I don't see any way Kamala can win. I don't care what the polls say, what the news says, I follow statistics and trends that I see daily. This is the most likely outcome November 5.