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Housing Market Correction Happening After all?

11/26/2024

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By Tristan, Contributor

​In October 2024, U.S. new home sales significantly declined, marking a notable downturn in the housing market. Here are the key points:

New home sales fell to an annual rate of 610,000 units, which is the lowest level since November 2022. This figure was well below the consensus forecast of 725,000 units. The drop represented a 17.3% decrease from the previous month and a 9% decrease from the same period in the previous year.

There's mention of October hurricanes potentially contributing to this decline, alongside the overarching pressure from rising mortgage rates.

The reaction to this data on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) reflects a consensus of concern about the housing market, with analysts and observers noting this as potentially the beginning of a market correction due to high mortgage rates and other economic factors.

The months' supply of new homes for sale jumped to 9.5 months, the highest since 2022, indicating a significant increase in available inventory, which historically can signal a cooling market.

The median sales price of new homes in October was $437,300, up from $417,500 a year prior, despite the drop in sales volume, suggesting price resilience in certain market segments.

This downturn in new home sales is seen as part of broader economic trends affecting the housing sector, with high mortgage rates playing a crucial role in reducing buyer demand. However, there are also indications of a potential future increase in sales if mortgage rates decrease, as suggested by some economic analyses and builder sentiment reports.
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