Allan Lichtman, Who Has Accurately Predicted Every Election Since 1984, Says Biden Will WIN In 2024

Recent polling suggests a promising outlook for Donald Trump, yet with nine months remaining in the presidential race, American University professor Allan Lichtman argues that Joe Biden maintains an advantage based on historical "keys" to victory.
Here's a structured breakdown of the keys, organized from 1 to 13:
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1. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
2. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
3. The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
4. There is no significant third-party challenge.
5. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. There is no sustained scandal that directly affects the incumbent administration.
10. The incumbent administration is untainted by major foreign or military failures.
11. The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Lichtman explains that out of the 13 historical predictors of electoral success, five favor Biden, three favor Trump, and the remaining indicators are still uncertain. This suggests that the Democrats are relying on certain factors such as foreign policy and economic performance to swing in their favor as the election approaches, while hoping to avoid the impact of a strong third-party campaign.

The concept of the "Keys to the White House" was introduced by Lichtman in the early 1980s and consists of 13 indicators believed to determine presidential election outcomes, with a track record dating back to 1860. Despite recent polling trends favoring Trump, Lichtman points out that Biden's status as an incumbent running for re-election, lack of serious competition within his party, and implementation of significant policy changes are factors that currently work in his favor.

Economic indicators also seem to lean in Biden's direction, with per capita economic growth during his term surpassing or matching the average growth rate of previous administrations. However, factors such as charisma and the absence of major foreign policy or military successes under Biden's administration may favor Trump.
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Lichtman notes that while some indicators favor Trump, including his perceived charisma and the absence of major foreign policy or military successes under Biden's administration, Biden currently holds the edge. However, Lichtman is cautious not to make a definitive prediction and expects to call the race based on the "keys" in early August.